The Siren of Novgorod

What is not surprising from Donald Trump? His unexpected actions and threats are not only targeted at his enemies. He even has such aggressive remarks to NATO allies, especially Germany.

Last week the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is going to withdraw a large number of US soldiers in Germany. From around 35,000 to 25,000, which is almost 30% of the current military presence. On the 16th of June, President Trump confirmed this withdrawal plan.

It will increasingly damage the already tense relationship between these two countries. Trump said that the plan is the US’s message to Germany because as NATO member country, Germany has failed to meet the 2% defence spending.

Will he really do it? We will see if Trump will do it and whether Germany will feel lost.

What did Trump said?

Trump said that this withdrawal is a punishment for Germany. He said, “So we’re protecting Germany, and they’re delinquent. That doesn’t make sense. So I said, we’re going to bring down the count to 25,000 soldiers.”.

This plan was quite surprising for Germany because it was done without consultation with Germany‘s federal government. As an ally, the Germans just found out through the media. Is that what you do to your partner?

Richard Grenell, former US Ambassador in Berlin, confirmed this news before Trump made a statement. According to him, this action is necessary to show that American taxpayers are tired to keep paying for protecting Germany, while Germany uses its surplus for domestic purposes.

He said it has nothing to do with Angela Merkel’s refusal to attend the G-7 meeting hosted by Trump. What surprising is, the station of the US military in Germany is actually a symbol of the US commitment to keep European allies from Russia.

How was Germany’s response?

Trump’s statement certainly surprised Germany, especially when the US made it sounds like Germany is the one that needed US protection. According to Germany, the US military is stationed there as a symbol to defend Transatlantic security.

According to NATO, Russia wants to exploit the divisions in NATO. Nearly 24 Republicans in the House of Representatives voiced their concern that it will be an award for Russia to be able to approach Germany if the US left.

The German Ambassador, Emily Haber, also responded to Trump after the official announcement from the White House. “U.S. troops … are not there to defend Germany. They are there to support Transatlantic security. … They are also there to project American power in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. “

Why Washington Decided to do This?

Why do they bring Russia here? NATO (especially the US and Poland) always regarded Russia as an enemy. However, Germany does not consider Russia as their enemy. A survey shown by Pew Research in 2019, 63% of Germans felt NATO did not need to protect their allies against Russia, while 60% of Americans agreed.

Through a 2016 survey of Bertelsmann Stiftung and the Institute of Public Affairs (ISP), 56% of Germans felt that Russia was not a military threat even though they had seen what happened in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Trump always criticizes Merkel, especially regarding migration issues, asylum, and about the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline collaboration. Nord Stream 2 is an LNG pipeline from Russia to Europe. In 2018, Germany granted permission for Nord Stream 2 to install construction and operate in German water and land in the Lubmin area.

Washington has also imposed sanctions for delaying construction. The sanction stated that there would be car import tariff for all Germany’s manufactures. Other than that, all companies that assist the Nord Stream project, such as the Swiss company Allseas have to stop their operations. Otherwise, any ownership of Allseas in the United States would be frozen. This penalty would also affect the assets of the Allseas USA and its ships from entering the US.

The original aim of the deployment

The deployment of US troops in foreign bases began in 1943. The US War Department decided to retain power in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. If they have a base overseas, the US can quickly attack anywhere; during the peacetime, the US also uses it as power projections.

The right to build a base and to transit was obtained by the US in the 1940s and became an essential part of US power projections. Ramstein Base is the main logistics centre for supplying operations in North Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East. This base is also the primary station for communicating with US drones deployed in war zones.

In Stuttgart, there is The US African Command and European Command. There is also the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, where thousands of US soldiers treated during the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. In Weilerbach, the US also built the largest US military hospital outside the United States. In Grafenwoehr, Bavaria, there is the largest US military training area in Europe as well. If we look at it closely, the bases in Germany are actually built for US security reasons not to secure German defence.

Poland response

Polish Foreign Minister, Pawel Jablonski has a different response to the US withdrawal plan. He is against US withdrawal from Germany. He hopes that US troops can be transferred to other countries in the Eastern European alliance.

“In general, we believe that withdrawing any troops from Europe is not a good signal, because European safety depends on the US army,” he said.

According to Jablonski, alliances in the East have more strategic needs and require more defensive capabilities. This is based on the decisive action from Russia that worries Poland. But the US has not confirmed whether the US troops will be moved to Poland, and it seems costly and complicated to do that.

How will it affect Germany

Germany is still going to be affected by this withdrawal. On the US military base in Germany, there are about 12,000 German civilians are working together with US troops. If they lose their jobs, Germany must pay financial compensation from state savings and tax money.

The German still pay for the military base. Berlin continues to subsidize 30% of base funds, they pay for damage done by the military, waste, and 151 million euros to build a new military clinic in Ramstein. In total, they have spent 243 million Euros to support US troops for seven years and an additional 480 million to pay the NATO-made construction in Germany.

The loss of US troops means the loss of local economic stimulus around the military bases. The base in Rhineland-Palatine (Ramstain) alone generates 2 million dollars a year for the local economy because there are 18,500 soldiers there not to mention the civilian workers and their families. In total, Hechler said that there were 25% of US citizens in the Rhineland-Palatine area. They rent apartments, eat-in bars, restaurants, and shop in shops around. On the US side, 40% of the salaries of US citizens, both civilian and military are used in the local economy.

What should the European countries do?

We can conclude that the US withdrawal plan raised more questions upon the US commitment in Europe. European Countries themselves have different opinions about the US military presence in Europe. The first groups, like Belgium and France, want to strengthen European defence because they want to reduce US power in Europe. Meanwhile, the second group, like the UK wants more robust European defence because it fears that the US is losing its interests in Europe.

These two thoughts are bringing European defences in different directions. The UK wants to strengthen European and US relations through NATO. The other group wants to make a military alternative that challenges NATO and brings the EU flag to various missions. But unfortunately, European cooperation with NATO has prevented Europe from creating a defence system with a NATO-like function.

If Trump really withdraws the US military from Germany, it means that inevitably Europe must improve its regional defence system. There is a European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) now that already has 20 operations. Through this, the EU government can work together to reorganize and increase its defence capacity, capabilities, and resources.

Military reform must be carried out, among others, by buying new equipment, modernizing weaponries, and conducting a large number of technological research. The EU currently is working on the liberalization of the defence market, which can later help improve EU defence capabilities without the need to increase the defence budget.

In addition to not only increasing the military capabilities, but it would also be better for the EU to develop the skills of its civilian workforce. Law enforcement and aid workers are some of the civilian agencies that could be developed to handle a crisis.

However, the US is still worried about Russia’s ability to impose its power on the Baltic countries and Poland. Russia indeed could think that the withdrawal is an opportunity to overtake Eastern Europe, but let us face it, Russia is currently very busy with recovering its economy and implementing the new constitution. Let’s see whether Trump will withdraw the US army from Germany or not because we know who actually benefits the most from this overseas deployment.

Do you think Trump will really withdraw the US army from Germany? Will he also granted Poland’s wish to have the army?